Earth heading for ‘mini ice age’ within 15 years
Earth heading for ‘mini ice age’ within 15 years

Earth heading for ‘mini ice age’ within 15 years

 

Earth heading for ‘mini ice age’ within 15 years

Research has predicted a new solar ‘Maunder minimum’ in the 2030s

London policemen on ice skates on the frozen River Thames circa 1900
London policemen on ice skates on the frozen River Thames circa 1900 CREDIT: Photo: Getty Images

The earth is 15 years from a period of low solar activity similar to that last seen during the “mini ice-age” of the 17th century, when the Thames froze.

Solar researchers at the University of Northumbria have created a new model of the sun’s activity which they claim produces “unprecedentedly accurate predictions”.

They said fluid movements within the sun, which are thought to create 11-year cycles in the weather, will converge in the 2030s.

Solar activity will fall by 60 per cent as two waves of fluid “effectively cancel each other out”, Prof Valentina Zharkova said in a presentation to the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno.

“[In the cycle between 2030 and around 2040] the two waves exactly mirror each other – peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the sun,” she said.

“Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other.

“We predict that this will lead to the properties of a ‘Maunder minimum'”.

Maunder minimum, indicating low sunspot activity, was the name given to the period between 1645 and 1715, when Europe and North America experienced very cold winters.

Thames Frost Fair

A frost fair on the Thames (Alamy)

In England during this “Little Ice Age”, River Thames frost fairs were held. In the winter of 1683-84 the Thames froze over for seven weeks, during which it was “passable by foot”, according to historical records.

Prof Zharkova said scientists had known about one dynamo caused by convecting fluids deep within the sun, but her research appeared to have uncovered another.

“We found magnetic wave components appearing in pairs, originating in two different layers in the sun’s interior,” she said.

“They both have a frequency of approximately 11 years, although this frequency is slightly different, and they are offset in time.

“Over the cycle, the waves fluctuate between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97 per cent.

“Effectively, when the waves are approximately in phase, they can show strong interaction, or resonance, and we have strong solar activity.

“When they are out of phase, we have solar minimums. When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago.”

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article inaccurately stated that scientists have predicted bitterly cold winters in the 2030s, “similar to freezing conditions of the late 17th century”. In fact, the research focused solely on solar activity, and did not made any prediction about its possible future climate effects. We are happy to make this clear.

 

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